Curse

Billiard · Feb 13, 2009, 05:44 PM // 17:44

I just posted up a new blog, but thought I would post the article up here as well:
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Today NCSoft released their quarterly earnings report, and I was quite frankly surprised by some of the numbers for Guild Wars. For the quarter ending Decemeber 2008, Guild Wars had 5,803,000 activated accounts. This number itself was not so surprising as I recall ArenaNet publicizing passing 5 million units sold. What surprised me though was the rate of growth of new accounts over the past year. Here are the numbers from the report for the past 2 years:

QTR / Accounts
Sep 2006 / 2,447,000
Dec 2006 / 3,122,000
Mar 2007 / 3,555,000
Jun 2007 / 3,917,000
Sep 2007 / 4,500,000
Dec 2007 / 4,878,000
Mar 2008 / 5,159,000
Jun 2008 / 5,377,000
Sep 2008 / 5,589,000
Dec 2008 / 5,803,000

A lot of people lament that Guild Wars is a dead game and that no one is playing, yet the number of newly activated accounts is still growing at a rate of over 200,000 a quarter even after nearly 4 years since being released. Also this week NCSoft also announced layoffs and reorganization in order to streamline operations, with two of the founders of ArenaNet taking charge of the new NCSoft West facilities. Today we see NCSoft stock soar to a 16 month high based on their projected profit outlook. This is especially impressive given the general downturn in the global economy.

All in all I think that NCSoft West and ArenaNet are playing a smart game with their Guild Wars franchise. Yes it looks like Guild Wars 2 won't be out until 2010 at the earliest, but Guild Wars is still alive and kicking, and more importantly still growing. So even though old players do quit the game and move on, there are still new people interested in checking out the game and willing to buy new accounts. This should help tremendously with the launch of Guild Wars 2 when it finally does get released. The key though will be having a polished game, with involving gameplay and content. Hopefully AreaNet has learned lessons from Age of Conan and Warhammer Online about releasing games without sufficiently polished endgame content.

Gun Pierson · Feb 13, 2009, 05:52 PM // 17:52

1 of them is an extra account I bought. Since xunlai became more known, people buy extra accounts.

There will be new players too, but we don't know the %.

Last thing I think about: the crisis may attract more people to gw, it's a good buy.

If you just look at the figures it's indeed very nice.

Nightow · Feb 13, 2009, 06:04 PM // 18:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gun Pierson

1 of them is an extra account I bought. Since xunlai became more known, people buy extra accounts.

There will be new players too, but we don't know the %.

Last thing I think about: the crisis may attract more people to gw, it's a good buy.

If you just look at the figures it's indeed very nice.

Nice yes but as 4thVariety said in the other thread, "For all I care, you might as well be the 5.999.999 million alternate personalities of Bill Gates." To companies, it really doesn't make a difference who owns them. After 4 years, GW is still generating revenue and that in itself is wonderful news to hear.

Anon-e-mouse · Feb 13, 2009, 06:05 PM // 18:05

These figures are probably helped by the new 'versions' of the game now being sold at semi-budget prices in the UK and other places (I recently saw Factions and NF at 2 for £15).

I will admit the likelihood is that a lot of those accounts are Xunlai related. I know my 4 spare activated accounts sorta are..

slowerpoke · Feb 13, 2009, 06:56 PM // 18:56

for someone who hasnt played gw before, there is plenty to do to keep them entertained for many months.

i suspect though alot of the accounts are bought by existing players wanting more mules

enter_the_zone · Feb 13, 2009, 07:12 PM // 19:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anon-e-mouse

These figures are probably helped by the new 'versions' of the game now being sold at semi-budget prices in the UK and other places (I recently saw Factions and NF at 2 for £15).

I will admit the likelihood is that a lot of those accounts are Xunlai related. I know my 4 spare activated accounts sorta are..

Indeed

12Chars...

Coraline Jones · Feb 13, 2009, 07:18 PM // 19:18

I seriously doubt that there are almost 6 million "active" accounts on Guild Wars. I think that number is the number of game keys activated, as no account is ever "inactive" in Guild Wars since once you're a member, then you're forever a member. After all, there are no monthly fees, so there's no reason to ever "shut off" your account.

For instance, I had 10 friends that live in my town that were the biggest GW fans. Since the game launch, I am the last person still playing on a regular basis. Some of them quit so long ago that they could not remember their passwords anymore and can't login anymore.

Also, I wonder if that number takes the number of accounts that are banned on a supposed-weekly basis in Guild Wars. According to Regina and other ANet reps, they ban something like 1000 accounts every single week for gold selling and botting. Or that's what they said to us.

At the very least, the chart implies that the number of people playing over time has grown to a number so huge that every town should be busting at the seams with players, and anybody can tell that this is not true. World of Warcraft has over 10 million players actively playing (or at least PAYING) every month to play it. Xfire does show a huge number of users and hours for the game, so it must be true. Look at the numbers for Guild Wars. It's nowhere near that amount... To say that there's six million people playing on Guild Wars would be the greatest exaggeration ever told.

Sir Skullcrasher · Feb 13, 2009, 07:19 PM // 19:19

I have several accounts for various purpose. Mainly used as storage or getting zkeys from predictions.

I wonder how long it will take for A-Net to hit the 10 millions mark?

crazybanshee · Feb 13, 2009, 07:25 PM // 19:25

It really doesn't matter why someone bought the accounts and what they use them for. It probably works out better for anet if people do buy 4 xunlai accounts - not only have they sold 5 accounts to one customer, but 4 of the accounts will have very little activity and therefore not be taxing anets servers and so on. Good to hear - means gw and gw2 will be getting the attention they're due.

snaek · Feb 13, 2009, 07:35 PM // 19:35

gw trilogy (sep 08) & gw complete collections (sep 08) says hai
not very surprising at all if u aks me

wrath of the lichking being #1 on sales @ ndp (january) doesnt surprise me either
wow battle chest is #3
wow original is #5
wow burning crusade is #11

i dunno where gw ranks on ndp...but its not in the top20

Shadowmoon · Feb 13, 2009, 07:37 PM // 19:37

dead game is dead, but i guess anet has a indirect cash shop with the prediction house. Personally i wonder what would happen to these sells figures if the value fo zkeys drop.

Apollo Smile · Feb 13, 2009, 07:55 PM // 19:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coraline Jones

I seriously doubt that there are almost 6 million "active" accounts on Guild Wars. I think that number is the number of game keys activated, as no account is ever "inactive" in Guild Wars since once you're a member, then you're forever a member. After all, there are no monthly fees, so there's no reason to ever "shut off" your account.

For instance, I had 10 friends that live in my town that were the biggest GW fans. Since the game launch, I am the last person still playing on a regular basis. Some of them quit so long ago that they could not remember their passwords anymore and can't login anymore.

Also, I wonder if that number takes the number of accounts that are banned on a supposed-weekly basis in Guild Wars. According to Regina and other ANet reps, they ban something like 1000 accounts every single week for gold selling and botting. Or that's what they said to us.

At the very least, the chart implies that the number of people playing over time has grown to a number so huge that every town should be busting at the seams with players, and anybody can tell that this is not true. World of Warcraft has over 10 million players actively playing (or at least PAYING) every month to play it. Xfire does show a huge number of users and hours for the game, so it must be true. Look at the numbers for Guild Wars. It's nowhere near that amount... To say that there's six million people playing on Guild Wars would be the greatest exaggeration ever told.

Actually, Blizzard claims to have 11 million active accounts.
That is an exaggeration on its own. There isn't even room for that many people on the 241 servers they have. Log on WoW, and take a look at the different realms population at peak times. See how many are full and how many are medium and low?

Theres a good chance that HALF of that number are active.

furanshisuko · Feb 13, 2009, 07:55 PM // 19:55

i plan on getting some few accounts for xunlai :P

Sir Skullcrasher · Feb 13, 2009, 07:56 PM // 19:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowmoon

dead game is dead, but i guess anet has a indirect cash shop with the prediction house. Personally i wonder what would happen to these sells figures if the value fo zkeys drop.

Let's say there is no more tonics to get or there is a huge amount floating out there. The zkeys might drop to 3.5k or 4k a piece. I know for a fact that we'll see the same tonics again starting April and onward.

Well, maybe people will buy less accounts to farm zkeys but that doesn't stop them from getting one still.

seut · Feb 13, 2009, 08:05 PM // 20:05

You guys might want to listen to the conference call on the quarterly earnings report: http://www.ncsoft.net/global/ir/quarterly.aspx

Although it's mostly about Aoin and the increase of Lineage2 accounts in Japan, there is one question about GW2 @46:50.. (not the exact words)
reporter: Currently Guildwars 2 is scheduled for a 2011 release, why the delay?
Chris Chung (CEO of NC West): During development we changed our plan and decided to make the game bigger and add more content as previously planned.

Ctb · Feb 13, 2009, 08:09 PM // 20:09

Quote:

...Guild Wars is still alive and kicking, and more importantly still growing

I realize even simple math is hard for some people, but come on....

March 08 - Dec 08: 12.5% growth
March 07 - De 07: 37% growth

All these numbers tell me is that a lot fewer people activated accounts during a time when no new content was released than they did when new content was released. You certainly can't claim the game is growing (or shrinking) with the numbers you've presented. All you have is new account activations, which is only half the data: you need to know how fast people are LEAVING as well to say whether its growing or not.

If we measured the growth rate in populations that way we'd think this planet was currently inhabited by hundreds of billions of people....

Apollo Smile · Feb 13, 2009, 08:14 PM // 20:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ctb

I realize even simple math is hard for some people, but come on....

March 08 - Dec 08: 12.5% growth
March 07 - De 07: 37% growth

All these numbers tell me is that a lot fewer people activated accounts during a time when no new content was released than they did when new content was released. You certainly can't claim the game is growing (or shrinking) with the numbers you've presented. All you have is new account activations, which is only half the data: you need to know how fast people are LEAVING as well to say whether its growing or not.

If we measured the growth rate in populations that way we'd think this planet was currently inhabited by hundreds of billions of people....

Considering the last expansion came out in August 07, i'd say 08's growth was still pretty damn good.

Tharg · Feb 13, 2009, 08:18 PM // 20:18

Old accounts don't make any money for Anet - new accounts do.

If they get 200,000 new accounts per quarter (let's say 65,000 per month), at an average discounted price of USD 20 per account - they would have gross income of USD 1.3 million per month. I'm not sure but it does not sound like a lot of money to keep on running GW and develop GW2 in the meantime...

[Morkai] · Feb 13, 2009, 08:20 PM // 20:20

Lots of new players does not make a good, healthy game. The reason GW is dying is because experienced players are leaving because they have nothing worthy left to do.

And yes, I've heard some rather sad individuals have 30+ accounts.

snaek · Feb 13, 2009, 08:20 PM // 20:20

to those who r bad with numbers:
(this was already done in a previous thread without the dec08 numbers...but heres a new chart including the latest numbers)

important dates:
aug 07 - eotn released
mar 08 - platinum edition released
sep 08 - gw trilogy & complete collections released